Philosopher Daniel Dennett describes the human brain as an “anticipation machine.” He says that making future is the most important thing it does.
Most of us do not struggle to think about the future because mental simulations of the future arrive in our consciousness regularly and unbidden, occupying every corner of our mental lives. –Daniel Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness
Unfortunately, the process the brain uses—adding the past to the present to equal (predict) the future—is far from a fail-safe method for figuring out either what actually lies ahead or how we will feel should what we anticipate come to pass. Our “anticipation machine” creates what we experience as expectations: estimates or forecasts of future situations based on present or past experiences. Expectations are beliefs we have about what should happen or about the way things should or will be.
But the future is fundamentally different from the present; therefore, it isn’t something we can accurately imagine. Our images of the future are firmly lodged in the now, in what we already know and are familiar with. Our visions of what may be possible in the future are heavily constrained by what has already been—or rather, by the stories we’ve constructed about it. We’re not influenced by the past as much as we’re influenced by our stories about the past.
Who I am is the habit of what I always was and who I’ll be is the result. –Louise Erdrich
Not only is the future not the same as the present, but according to Daniel Gilbert, our future self is not the same as our present self (nor is our present self the same as our past self). Our future self may want nothing to do with the commitments our present self is busy making for it or the plans our present self is setting into motion at this very moment.
The person you are right now is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary as all the people you’ve ever been. The one constant in our life is change. –Daniel Gilbert
But wait; there’s more.
We try to repeat those experiences that we remember with pleasure and pride, and we try to avoid repeating those that we remember with embarrassment and regret. The trouble is that we often don’t remember them correctly. –Daniel Gilbert
So the bottom line is that we don’t remember the past—which we’re basing quite a few of our expectations on—correctly, we’re no good at imagining what the future is going to be like, and we can’t accurately imagine how we’re going to react to future events when they do occur.
When we spy the future through our prospectiscopes, the clarity of the next hour and the fuzziness of the next year can lead us to make a variety of mistakes. –Daniel Gilbert
But that doesn’t stop us from believing we can predict the future or from feeling certain we know what will make us happy or satisfied once we’re living in it. Our brain, after all, does crave certainty.
We tend to accept the brain’s products uncritically and expect the future to unfold with the details—and with only the details—that the brain has imagined. –Daniel Gilbert
There’s simply no way to guarantee our future happiness. There’s no way to guarantee anything. But quite a bit of research suggests that one of the biggest things that gets in the way of happiness is our firm belief that we know what will make us happy. What would it be like to loosen the reins, to let go of that mistaken notion? What would it be like to allow ourselves to stop trying to guarantee our happiness and allow ourselves to…stumble on it?
