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The Other Problem with
Affective Forecasting

July 27, 2016 by Joycelyn Campbell Leave a Comment

affective forecasting

The year it was published, I purchased a copy of the Best American Non-Required Reading 2004, which included an article written by Jon Gertner for the New York Times titled The Futile Pursuit of Happiness. The article reviewed the work of several psychologists whose work I eventually became familiar with—including Daniel Gilbert, Timothy Wilson, and Daniel Kahneman—in the relatively new field of affective forecasting. I was intrigued enough to copy the article, reread it, and highlight a good portion. From the vantage point of now, I see it was one of the small handful of bread crumbs along the trail to creating Farther to Go!

But I filed the article away, and in the interim between then and 2012, seem to have forgotten about it. Daniel Gilbert’s book Stumbling on Happiness was already a best seller before I came across a copy of it, and I don’t recall connecting the dots between it and the article I’d been so interested in. I’ve recommended the book to numerous people and refer to it in some of my courses in spite of it’s focus on happiness, not because of it.

Don’t Worry; Be Happy

That’s the other problem with affective forecasting (read my previous post, Miswanting). The emphasis is on happiness rather than on satisfaction and meaning. Happiness is an ephemeral emotional state. We’re simply not always going to be happy—and trying to be isn’t even a worthwhile goal.

We are living in an era in which the Happiness Industry invades and permeates society and every unpleasant aspect of life is frowned upon, and dismissed as an unnecessary social ill. Rather than learning to cope with or contemplate certain aspects of life—fear, sadness, loneliness and boredom—we avoid them, gradually removing our ability to tolerate even the most mundane of the difficult aspects of life. —Siobhan Lyons, Philosophy Now

The things that make us happy are not necessarily the things we find satisfying or meaningful. That’s partly because happiness is a function of the unconscious part of the brain (System 1), which is focused on immediate gratification, while satisfaction and meaning are functions of the conscious part (System 2), which is focused on long-term goals and plans. The pursuit of happiness keeps us fixated on ourselves and on gratifying our immediate wants and needs.

Furthermore, because happiness is an ephemeral and transient emotional state, what makes us happy at one point in time isn’t necessarily going to make us happy at another. But because of the way we’re wired, it’s very difficult to recognize and account for that in the moment.

We’re more different from ourselves in different states than we are from another person. —George Loewenstein, Educator and Economist

And maybe a certain amount of something makes us happy, but too much of it makes us sick—literally or figuratively. Too much craft beer, sex, alone time, hanging out with a best friend, tiramisu, dancing, cooking, listening to music, laughing—whatever it is that makes us happy has at least the potential to also make us very unhappy.

To be fair to Daniel Gilbert, he isn’t advocating the relentless pursuit of happiness, either:

If someone offers you a pill that makes you happy 100 percent of the time, you should run fast in the other direction. It’’s not good to feel happy in a dark alley at night. Happiness is a noun, so we think it’s something we can own. But happiness is a place to visit, not a place to live. It’’s like the child’’s idea that if you drive far and fast enough you can get to the horizon—. No, the horizon’’s not a place you get to. —Daniel Gilbert, quoted in The Science of Happiness, Harvard Magazine

However, there is a considerable amount of discussion and debate about how we should approach the subject of happiness. This may be the most useful perspective:

The moments of happiness we enjoy take us by surprise. It is not that we seize them, but that they seize us. —Ashley Montagu, Anthropoligist

Satisfying and Meaningful vs. Happy

One way to bypass the errors we make in affective forecasting is to focus on creating satisfying and meaningful lives rather than happy ones by identifying what we really want. Higher order wants or, as I call them, Big Picture Wants, are abstract but they are neither transient nor ephemeral.

Research indicates that if you aim for satisfying and meaningful, you may get happiness as a byproduct. But if you aim for happiness, you will not get satisfaction and meaning as byproducts. And the people who pursue satisfaction and meaning, even when the going gets tough, report higher overall levels of satisfaction with their lives. Because what is meaningful is less transitory, we have a better chance of achieving and sustaining a meaningful life—and therefore a satisfying one—than we have of achieving and maintaining a happy life.

When we’re oriented to something bigger than we are, and bigger than our immediate wants and needs, we’re less susceptible to the pull of immediate gratification. When we give our big brain (consciousness, System 2) something worthwhile to focus on, we can achieve goals or create things that actually make a difference to ourselves and to others.

Our obsession with happiness may reflect a sense that our lives lack meaning, but pursuing happiness is not the solution. George Loewenstein recommends we invest our resources in the things that will make us happy. I think we’ll be much better off if instead we invest our resources in what makes our lives satisfying and meaningful. That path may be risky and not always easy or pleasurable, but…

If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster. –Clint Eastwood

Filed Under: Beliefs, Choice, Finding What You Want, Happiness, Living, Making Different Choices, Meaning Tagged With: Affective Forecasting, Happiness, Meaning, Meaningful Life, Satisfaction

Miswanting: The Problems with Affective Forecasting

July 20, 2016 by Joycelyn Campbell Leave a Comment

affective forecasting

Affective forecasting refers to our attempt to imagine a future event and predict how we’re going to feel about it when it occurs. The term and the research on it may be relatively new, but we engage in the process whenever we attempt to determine a course of action. The results of numerous studies on affective forecasting reveal that (1) we’re not very good at it, (2) we don’t know we’re not very good at it, and so (3) we keep making the same mistakes when pursuing what we think will make us happy. The term for this coined by Daniel T. Gilbert and Timothy D. Wilson is miswanting.

The reason we’re not very good at predicting our future feelings is that we routinely make all kinds of errors, some of which are described below. First the good news: we’re generally good at predicting whether a future experience will be positive or negative. And when we make short-term (tomorrow) versus long-term (a year from now) predictions, we’re pretty good at accurately identifying the emotions we’re likely to feel when we experience an event.

Impact

What we’re not very good at is predicting how intense our feelings will be and how long they will last. This prediction error is known as the impact bias.

Whether people overestimate how good or bad they will feel, overestimate how quickly those feelings will arise, or underestimate how quickly they will dissipate, the important point is that they overestimate how powerfully the event will impact their emotional lives—Timothy D. Wilson, Daniel T. Gilbert (2003)

So we tend to believe that both positive and negative events will affect us more intensely and that the duration of those effects will be longer than they’re likely to be. We think that getting the new job, the guy/girl, the new house/car, or winning the lottery will cause us to feel fantastic for the foreseeable future. We think not getting the job, failing a test, losing a friend, or experiencing a financial setback will cause us to feel devastated for the foreseeable future.

Big vs. Small

We believe that a bigger problem will have a bigger negative effect on us than a smaller, chronic problem or minor annoyance will. But that doesn’t turn out to be the case for a couple of reasons. One is that we tend to respond to and take care of the bigger problems but often let the smaller ones drag on and annoy us indefinitely. The other is that we have a so-called psychological immune system that’s triggered by big problems to help us cope with them.

Misconstrual

In order to predict how we’re likely to feel about something, we need to be able to imagine the event. That’s easier to do if we’ve experienced it or something similar in the past. If we’ve been to a lot of parties, we can imagine—in general—how we’ll feel about attending a party on Saturday. If we’ve cleaned out the garage before, we can imagine how we’ll feel about doing that on Saturday, too. But if we haven’t experienced an event, what we imagine or expect may not bear much resemblance to the way the actual event unfolds. Thinking we can predict the future leads us to believe in the veracity of what we imagine.

Memory

Even if we’re able to imagine an event because we’ve experienced it before, our memory of it—and how we felt at the time—may be faulty simply because it’s the nature of memory to be faulty. And the feelings we experience when remembering a past event are not necessarily the same feelings we had when the event took place. Additionally, when we don’t recall actual details of an event, we may come to rely instead on our beliefs or theories about how such an event will make us feel.

Variability

When trying to decide where to vacation, which movie to see, or which house to buy, we tend to focus on, compare, and overestimate the differences between various options and underestimate their similarities. Furthermore, the order in which people are asked to think about differences vs. similarities has been found to influence the accuracy of their affective forecasting. Those who thought last about the similarities tended to be happier about their choices.

Hot vs. Cold States

When we’re in a “hot” emotional state (anxious, fearful, hungry, courageous, or sexually excited, for example), we have a hard time predicting what we will want when we’re in a “cold” (more rational) state—and vice versa. That means when we’re in a cold state—satiated, for example—we’re likely to predict we’ll have enough willpower to avoid binging on the bag of potato chips we’re picking up at the supermarket. But later that evening, when we’re hungry—in a hot state—we do, in fact, binge eat.

These mistakes—which arise because of the way we’re wired, not because there’s something wrong with us—aren’t the only mistakes we make when trying to predict what will make us happy or sad in the future. But hopefully they help clarify why it’s so hard to make accurate predictions and why we’re often disappointed by the choices we make.

Next time: The Other Problem with Affective Forecasting

Filed Under: Beliefs, Choice, Cognitive Biases, Finding What You Want, Happiness, Making Different Choices Tagged With: Affective Forecasting, Happiness, Impact Bias

“Brain Power” Podcast

April 4, 2016 by Joycelyn Campbell Leave a Comment

Print

This past November, I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Giovanna Rossi Pressley on the Well Woman Show on KUNM radio. During this episode, titled “Brain Power,” we discussed the conscious and unconscious parts of the brain, the Enneagram, a little bit about me, and the origin of Farther to Go!

The interview is now available as a podcast, which I’m so happy to share with you.

Click here to go to the show notes page where you’ll find lots more information, as well as several options for listening to and/or downloading the 30-minute audio file.

Excerpt from the show notes:

Farther To Go is based off of the principle that our brains are primarily driven to maintain the status quo because that is the safest, easiest, and most energy-efficient option. This is a survival mechanism; if our past habits have lead to our survival, our brain wants to continue to maintain those habits. This can make change very difficult, as this unconscious part of your brain keeps on ‘correcting’ you back toward your old habits when you try to switch things up. Farther To Goovercomes this barrier through education. By better understanding the interactions between your conscious and unconscious brain you can rewire those interactions, making autopilot work for you rather than against you. Ultimately this allows you to achieve small goals, such as a healthier diet, as well as larger ones such as career or lifestyle changes.

After listening to the podcast, please visit wellwomanlife.com to find out more about Giovanna and her fantastic, super-powerful venture!

Filed Under: Brain, Consciousness, Enneagram, Habit, Happiness, Unconscious Tagged With: Brain, Enneagram, Well Woman Life

Light Up Your Brain with Gratitude

November 27, 2015 by Joycelyn Campbell Leave a Comment

gratitude

Thanksgiving is the one day a year we set aside to reflect on the people and the things we’re grateful for. At least that’s the idea. The reality of feast, family, friends, fun, and football isn’t entirely off the mark. All those warm, festive feelings are good for us and good for each other. At least they have the potential for keeping us out of trouble. But the giving thanks part of Thanksgiving can easily fall by the wayside, especially in light of another characteristic of the holiday: frenzy.

Yes, it’s nice to have a day that’s focused on people getting along, eating good food together, and thinking about what we’re grateful for. But it’s hard to stuff a year’s worth of gratitude into a single day. Gratitude is more powerful and more effective when undertaken as a regular practice than when treated as an annual event.

Multiple studies confirm that gratitude can improve your health, happiness, and wellbeing. Among other things, a regular gratitude practice can help you:

  • Sleep better and longer
  • Exercise more
  • Be more optimistic
  • Decrease aches and pains
  • Lower anxiety and depression
  • Increase resilience

How? Well, researchers at the National Institute of Health (NIH) observed that people who felt gratitude had higher activity in the hypothalamus. The hypothalamus is an area of the brain responsible for controlling such bodily functions as eating, drinking, and sleeping, as well as influencing stress levels and metabolism.

Gratitude also activates the neurotransmitter dopamine, which is involved in the brain’s reward system. The release of dopamine fills us with a feeling of pleasure. It’s the reward we get for the behavior we just engaged in. The purpose of the brain’s reward system is to help ensure that we learn—and remember—behaviors that enhance our chances of remaining alive. That’s why so many of the things we naturally find rewarding are related to food and reproduction. In addition to food and sex, lots of things trigger the release of dopamine, including social interactions, generosity, and—as it turns out—gratitude.

Dopamine plays a role in:

  • Movement
  • Memory
  • Behavior and cognition
  • Attention and alertness
  • Motivation
  • Sleep
  • Mood
  • Learning

It’s part of a brain circuit called the mesolimbic pathway, which connects behaviors to feelings of pleasure, resulting in the formation of habits. When dopamine is released, emotional and learning circuits are activated to increase the likelihood we will remember what we did so we can repeat the behavior. The hit of dopamine we get from feeling grateful engages our brain in what neuroscience researcher Alex Korb calls “a virtuous cycle.” Once we begin practicing gratitude, our brain actively looks for things to be grateful for. How cool is that?

Find a Gratitude Practice that Works for You

There are several different ways to practice gratitude. You can choose one, mix and match, or modify one or more to suit yourself. The keyword is “practice,” which means doing it on a regular basis.

  • Gratitude Journal: Keep a gratitude journal in which to record things you experience that you’re grateful for. You can do it by hand, on a computer, or with an app.
  • Gratitude List: Think of—or record—one or more things you’re grateful for, either every day or once a week. Interestingly, there’s evidence that doing this weekly is more effective than doing it daily.
  • Expressing Gratitude: Create a daily practice of conveying your gratitude to other people—friends, family, co-workers, service people, even strangers—verbally or in writing.
  • Gratitude Meditation: Begin your meditation by acknowledging what you are grateful for in the present moment.

At times our own light goes out and is rekindled by a spark from another person. Each of us has cause to think with deep gratitude of those who have lighted the flame within us. —Albert Schweitzer  

Gratitude is an appreciation for what is meaningful and valuable to us. Simply experiencing feelings of gratitude can enhance our wellbeing by changing our brain. But since we’re social animals, it makes sense that sharing those feelings by expressing our gratitude whenever possible is even more rewarding.

Filed Under: Brain, Celebration, Consciousness, Happiness, Living, Mindfulness Tagged With: Brain, Dopamine, Gratitude, Reward system, Thanksgiving

Creativity: It Isn’t All in Your Head

September 25, 2015 by Joycelyn Campbell Leave a Comment

creative-brain

Creativity is the ability to see what already exists in a new light, to think of new ideas, and to make new things.

If whatever has been created (the new idea or object) is widely accepted (valued) in the field within which it was generated, it is called Big C creativity. Creative results that don’t meet both of those criteria are referred to as Little C creativity.

The fact that we can imagine something does not prove that it is possible. —Julian Baggini, The Ego Trick

Maybe your creative endeavors have—or will—generate widespread acceptance and approval; maybe not.

You don’t have to aim for Big C creativity, but if you aren’t engaging in Little C creativity, you’re unlikely to create anything big. And you might also be depriving yourself of a more enjoyable and satisfying life.

Even though personal creativity may not lead to fame and fortune, it can do something that from the individual’s point of view is even more important: make day-to-day experiences more vivid, more enjoyable more rewarding. When we live creatively, boredom is banished and every moment holds the promise of a fresh discovery. Whether or not these discoveries enrich the world beyond our personal lives, living creatively links us with the process of evolution. —Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

What Does It Take to Be Creative?

Are creative people different in some fundamental way from other people? Do they have exceptional intelligence? Are they more right-brained? Do they tend to be messy, unfocused, disorganized, and impractical? Are all creative people artistic? Highly talented in some particular area? Are they unconventional? Do they feel things more deeply? Do they have more vivid imaginations? Do they know how to think outside the box?

These questions are common, because we tend to think of people as being either creative or non-creative. End of story. But even the most diehard “non-creative” person will occasionally, sometimes accidentally, come up with a fresh insight. And even the most relentlessly “creative” person will run out of ideas from time to time. Regardless of personality, background, talent, or experience, just about anyone can get better at being creative because anyone can learn how the creative process works.

How Does the Creative Process Work?

Depending on who you ask, the creative process has anywhere from three to ten steps, maybe more. What it all boils down to is using the right part of the brain at the right time. In fact, the creative process isn’t significantly different from problem-solving—and a case can even be made that the way to approach art is as problem-solving.

Practicing problem solving in art projects gets the mind working, thinking and open to solutions not before considered. If the student can think about an “art problem” in new ways, then they not only build skills for the art room, but they train their minds to think in a problem-solving mode. —artist Valerie Mann, speaking at the University of Michigan School of Social Work

  1. Find or identify a problem to solve and create an intention to solve it. This involves using both focused and unfocused attention. (What’s the difference between trying to solve a problem and trying to find a problem to solve?)
  2. Immerse yourself in it. Grapple with it. Obtain the knowledge or information you need to have in order to solve it (focused attention/knowledge loading). Choreographer Twyla Tharp has a good exercise for this step. Write down 20 things you’ll need to know in order to be able to solve the problem.
  3. Divert your attention. Step away from the problem to an unrelated activity (unfocused attention/System 1) to allow your unconscious to process the problem and arrive at a solution. You could turn to a repetitive task, take a walk, or listen to some music.
  4. Fine tune and implement the solution.

Each experience with the creative process expands your mental model, which increases your creative possibilities. To get the greatest benefit, though, you need to take action (Step 4). We are embodied beings, and what we do has more of an effect on our mental model than what we think.

Counterintuitive Creativity Tips
  • Creativity involves both parts of the brain—the conscious and the unconscious. The trick, if there is one, is to know which type of thinking to use when. Sometimes you need to apply focused (conscious) attention, which is linear, logical, effortful, and slow. At other times you need unfocused (System 1/unconscious) attention, which is associative, non-logical, runs in the background, and is fast. Attempting to sustain focused attention is counterproductive.
  • New ideas are not spun from thin air. Creativity involves synthesizing, remixing, and re-envisioning what already exists.
  • Routines and habits are not by their nature creativity killers. They can actually increase your creative thinking by freeing up System 2 attention. The only real creativity killers are tunnel vision and inflexibility.
  • Constraints can be beneficial to creativity as long as you know they’re there.
  • If you want a brain that can think more complex thoughts and solve more complex problems, get in the habit of learning new things. And move!

Physical activity is cognitive candy. Exercise stimulates one of the brain’s most powerful growth factors, BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factor). According to Harvard psychiatrist John Ratey, “It keeps [existing] neurons young and healthy, and makes them more ready to connect with one another. It also encourages neurogenesis—the creation of new cells.” The cells most sensitive to this are in the hippocampus, inside the very regions deeply involved in human cognition. —John Medina, Brain Rules

  • As John Cleese says, Creativity is not a talent. It is a way of operating. In daily life, all over the world, we are faced with many problems, large and small. Why not operate on them creatively—and find some new ones to solve while we’re at it?

Filed Under: Brain, Creating, Happiness, Learning, Living Tagged With: Creative Process, Creativity, Problem solving

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