The planning fallacy is a tendency to “describe plans and forecasts that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios.” [Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversy] In other words, people tend to make plans, set goals, schedule their time, etc., based on an assumption that everything will go smoothly, easily, and according to the plan they have created.
One effect of the planning fallacy is underestimating how long something will take to complete. If a deadline is involved, the result can range from a period of burning the midnight oil to catch up to a major catastrophe—depending on the situation.
Another effect is an inability to tolerate the inevitable delays and obstacles that are a normal part of any project or process and to interpret them to mean that something must be terribly wrong or someone must be to blame (because things haven’t gone according to the plan).
The way to beat the planning fallacy is to focus on process rather than on outcome.
Concentrating on process—the steps or activities necessary to achieve the desired result—helps people focus their attention, leads to more realistic expectations, and reduces anxiety. This allows people to anticipate potential problems as well as potential solutions.
Of course, it’s important to identify the desired outcome so you know where you’re headed. But once you have done that, if you keep your attention on what it will take to get there, you’re much more likely to arrive and to maintain your sanity.
This is such a great perspective. I had a plan to make a plan this weekend, and now I will make a point of focusing on the outcomes and moving toward those, rather than getting stuck with best-case-scenario thinking!
Great. Thank you.
You’d think we’d have this figured out by now, but I was just reminded that System 1 does not handle ambiguity or doubt very well–if at all–and I think that helps keep simplistic, best-case-scenario thinking in place.